The Paris Agreement was the outcome of COP21 in Paris. This was a promise made by all the Parties to the Convention (the UN FCCC) to slow down their emissions of greenhouse gases. The more economically developed countries set targets to reduce emissions and the less developed countries agreed to reduce the rate at which their emissions are rising with a view to cutting them at a later date.
The Parties also committed to keep global heating “well below” 2°C and to “make efforts” to hold it to 1.5°C. Scientific evidence shows that there is significantly more risk of significant climate breakdown at 2° when compared to 1.5°.
Those taking part in the conference undertook to review their commitments on a five year cycle and upgrade them if the science indicates that this is required.
Nationally Determined Contributions
2020 was the end of the first five year cycle and the Parties to the Paris Agreement were supposed to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions during the year. COP26 was intended to be the time that the Parties would upgrade their commitments in line with the scientific advice put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC. The number of Parties who upgrade their commitments will be an important test of the Paris Agreement – but it is easy to make promises and much more difficult to keep them, as we have seen with pledges and commitments made by national governments before, both in relation to climate breakdown and other issues.
The problem is that, in line with many international agreements, the Paris Agreement is quite vague and lacks any form of sanction. Under the Agreement, the enhanced NDC submissions should have been presented in 2020 but this is non-binding on countries, and there was no political momentum or urgency – most governments claimed to be fully occupied with their response to Covid-19.
One bright spot in the approach to COP26 has been the reinvigoration of the commitment of the United States to take action to overcome the worst effects of climate breakdown. Following the rejection of President Donald Trump’s policies by a significant proportion of the US electorate, President Biden’s administration has engaged with the international negotiations once more and on 21 April 2021, submitted their updated NDC, committing the US to setting an economy-wide target of reducing its net greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52 percent below 2005 levels in 2030.
The next set of upgrades to the NDCs comes in 2025 but if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise between now and then, it it is likely to be impossible to meet the 1.5 degree global heating target and the 2 degree target may also be at risk. The UK’s NDC commits us to reduce economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by at least 68% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels.
Following recommendations from the UK’s Committee on Climate Change, in April 2021, the UK government took another step forward by committing to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 78% by 2035. This move was intended to encourage other governments to make bolder commitments ahead of COP26.
Funding for less economically developed countries
At the Copenhagen summit, COP15, in 2009, the most economically developed nations agreed to ensure the provision of 100 billion US dollars per year by 2020 to help the poorest countries reduce the carbon intensity of their economies and prepare for the impacts of Climate Breakdown. This target was reconfirmed in the Paris Agreement.
This funding package has to be finalised by the time of COP26, along with a clear commitment and mechanism for delivering it year after year and increasing the amount available before 2025. This is essential for securing the support of the developing world. Some of the NDCs put forward by developing countries include pledges to curb emissions further if the financial support comes through. Clearly, this funding package could unlock further cuts in greenhouse gas emissions so it’s really important that this commitment and mechanism is put in place at COP26.
In January 2020, Mark Carney, the former Governor of the Bank of England was appointed as the UK Prime Minister’s finance adviser for COP26. This appointment confirmed the government’s focus on finance and economics as a method of driving action on climate change and Mr Carney’s input is important. Unlike many politicians, he does seem to understand the importance of climate breakdown – but his experience is deeply rooted in finance and whether he fully grasps the severity of the problem remains to be seen. Many of the neoliberal policies implemented to deal with climate change, such as emissions trading schemes, have not had the required effect.
The IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5 degrees C, published in 2018, shows that it’s still technically feasible to keep global heating below 1.5 or 2 degrees but the economic cost of doing so is increasing rapidly. So far, we’ve made only slow progress towards emission reductions. With every month and year lost, the technical and financial challenges and costs rise and will, at some point, become insurmountable. At that point, we’ll be locked in to global heating of 2 degrees C and above. The postponement of COP26 until 2021 is, therefore, bad news.
In short
This has been a bit of a technical explanation but, in short, the delegates to COP26 must agree to a set of Nationally Determined Contributions which, in total, ensure that greenhouse gas emissions begin their downward trajectory and that policies are in place to prevent them from rising again. There must be a binding commitment from all the Parties to the Convention to enact the policies in their own countries to ensure the Nationally Determined Contributions are met. Wealthy countries must commit to provide the funds to help the poorer and more vulnerable countries to meet their own commitments but also to allow them to adapt to the effects of climate breakdown.
To achieve this level of agreement will need the delegates to arrive at the conference with a clear understanding of what is required if we are to avoid the most damaging effects of climate breakdown. They will also need an unequivocal mandate from their governments to make sure the conference is successful! COP26 cannot ‘solve’ climate change; no single event can. But it can go a long way to making sure that we change course to meet the temperature targets set out in Paris, 6 long years ago.